The proportion of elderly projected to buy long- term care insurance in 2016-20 ranges from a quarter of the elderly for BIGBEN to nearly two-thirds of the elderly for MEDIGAP. Although the BIGBEN policy reaches only 25 percent of the elderly aged 67 and over, the LOWBEN alternative results in coverage of 45 percent of the elderly aged 67 and over. Improved affordability is obtained by reducing the indemnity level purchased. Thus BIGBEN and LOWBEN are affordable by a substantial minority, but not a majority, of the elderly, even with generous purchase assumptions. Under an assumption of 4.4. percent rather than 5.8 percent annual nursing home and home care inflation, 57 percent of the elderly aged 67 and over could hold LOWBEN policies in 2016-20. A significantly lower inflation rate increases but does not dramatically change the proportion of elderly who might participate in insurance.
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